* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 160 158 157 155 152 147 138 134 130 126 123 122 125 V (KT) LAND 160 158 157 155 152 147 138 134 130 126 123 122 125 V (KT) LGEM 160 155 147 142 139 136 135 138 139 135 131 123 113 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 7 5 3 4 5 5 8 9 7 8 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 0 0 -3 -1 -2 3 7 7 5 SHEAR DIR 275 263 279 314 287 335 335 355 352 319 281 271 253 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 160 160 160 160 165 164 171 168 166 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 155 156 156 155 152 155 152 157 151 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.6 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.2 -49.0 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 11 9 700-500 MB RH 58 54 57 56 55 56 54 53 58 62 62 63 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 34 35 34 37 37 41 46 47 50 53 59 850 MB ENV VOR 67 54 57 62 67 64 57 62 96 118 133 173 222 200 MB DIV 20 5 0 1 -6 17 24 42 68 75 45 58 41 700-850 TADV -7 4 4 4 2 3 0 5 0 5 13 20 20 LAND (KM) 574 419 266 123 56 91 111 106 62 9 12 87 73 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.9 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.8 63.2 64.5 65.9 68.6 71.5 74.1 76.4 78.4 80.1 81.1 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 56 53 74 18 62 83 63 70 52 113 23 63 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -7. -11. -20. -33. -48. -61. -72. -79. -84. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 6. 11. 12. 16. 18. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -22. -26. -30. -34. -37. -38. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 17.2 60.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 160.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 893.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.07 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 4.0% 3.3% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 158 157 155 152 147 138 134 130 126 123 122 125 18HR AGO 160 159 158 156 153 148 139 135 131 127 124 123 126 12HR AGO 160 157 156 154 151 146 137 133 129 125 122 121 124 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 147 142 133 129 125 121 118 117 120 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 136 127 123 119 115 112 111 114 IN 6HR 160 158 149 143 140 136 127 123 119 115 112 111 114 IN 12HR 160 158 157 148 142 138 129 125 121 117 114 113 116