* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/12/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 42 41 33 33 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -3 -2 2 -5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 211 208 195 194 232 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.2 26.4 25.6 24.8 23.5 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 127 118 110 103 93 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 109 101 94 88 79 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -48.5 -48.7 -49.0 -49.1 -50.0 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 1.6 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 48 44 44 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 30 25 20 18 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 139 140 154 114 95 47 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 26 5 19 23 27 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 58 43 14 2 0 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -200 -269 -344 -404 -466 -614 -733 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.8 33.6 34.3 34.9 36.2 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.3 86.1 87.1 88.0 88.7 87.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 14 CX,CY: -6/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -0. 2. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -9. -13. -20. -30. -33. -34. -35. -36. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -29. -41. -45. -47. -49. -51. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.9 84.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/12/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 190.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 92.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/12/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/12/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT