* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 112 114 116 119 117 116 112 103 100 96 95 V (KT) LAND 100 107 112 114 116 119 117 98 102 93 90 86 85 V (KT) LGEM 100 108 113 115 116 117 117 96 103 100 98 95 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 3 7 3 4 7 8 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 5 8 2 2 3 9 5 10 7 3 SHEAR DIR 259 68 105 189 178 193 310 355 322 292 262 232 260 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 159 159 157 156 154 153 154 156 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 153 152 152 148 146 145 142 142 142 138 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 66 65 61 61 63 62 63 62 61 61 65 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 25 25 27 28 30 31 30 33 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 21 27 32 37 46 62 55 60 57 69 57 200 MB DIV 66 98 80 65 88 73 55 42 53 62 66 96 89 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 3 4 4 7 13 10 13 LAND (KM) 434 453 489 505 421 247 84 -22 59 59 167 311 447 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.5 61.2 61.9 62.6 64.0 65.3 66.8 68.3 69.7 70.8 71.6 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 61 63 80 68 65 69 69 81 54 60 71 66 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -2. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. 6. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 14. 16. 19. 17. 16. 12. 3. 0. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.5 59.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 19.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.97 8.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.52 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 436.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.51 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 13.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.4% 53.4% 48.5% 35.0% 34.0% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 42.8% 57.5% 45.3% 34.2% 31.5% 35.4% 13.3% 4.3% Bayesian: 72.6% 77.1% 69.8% 44.8% 21.3% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 51.6% 62.7% 54.5% 38.0% 29.0% 21.6% 4.5% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 107 112 114 116 119 117 98 102 93 90 86 85 18HR AGO 100 99 104 106 108 111 109 90 94 85 82 78 77 12HR AGO 100 97 96 98 100 103 101 82 86 77 74 70 69 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 92 95 93 74 78 69 66 62 61 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 82 63 67 58 55 51 50 IN 6HR 100 107 98 92 89 91 89 70 74 65 62 58 57 IN 12HR 100 107 112 103 97 93 91 72 76 67 64 60 59