* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 39 46 53 59 65 69 69 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 39 46 53 59 65 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 23 26 29 33 37 41 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 17 9 6 6 8 8 13 14 12 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 8 10 6 6 5 2 -2 0 8 1 SHEAR DIR 54 64 65 76 102 137 153 155 119 132 183 210 226 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 26.9 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 140 140 138 140 138 138 138 135 125 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 150 151 150 145 145 138 137 134 133 124 117 119 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 76 74 71 73 72 74 75 74 72 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 34 38 47 63 69 71 82 93 81 68 75 48 200 MB DIV 59 60 57 49 30 53 17 19 -5 17 18 26 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 2 3 1 3 0 -1 -1 1 20 30 LAND (KM) 96 249 386 582 777 1118 1373 1551 1663 1716 1819 2003 1913 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.6 9.2 9.3 9.7 10.8 12.6 14.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 15.3 17.6 19.7 21.7 23.6 26.7 29.0 30.7 31.9 32.8 34.2 36.6 40.0 STM SPEED (KT) 23 22 20 19 17 14 9 7 6 9 14 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 1 4 7 5 7 15 17 23 18 21 13 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 19. 26. 33. 39. 45. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.9 15.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.92 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/27/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 26 32 39 46 53 59 65 69 69 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 31 38 45 52 58 64 68 68 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 34 41 48 54 60 64 64 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT