* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 27 35 42 49 57 63 70 76 77 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 27 35 42 49 57 63 70 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 35 40 45 51 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 12 7 6 3 8 13 12 12 12 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 8 9 11 7 3 1 -3 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 76 80 82 79 110 114 122 126 120 113 148 208 219 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 138 142 140 140 138 137 134 127 120 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 152 149 145 149 145 142 136 134 132 127 119 117 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 73 76 74 72 73 73 72 73 72 73 72 73 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 51 53 55 57 91 100 98 69 39 72 69 200 MB DIV 73 62 45 25 37 21 7 7 7 25 24 45 36 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 2 4 2 4 4 0 -2 0 8 16 LAND (KM) 238 389 584 773 958 1311 1583 1779 1880 1926 1890 1824 1763 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.4 10.3 11.9 13.9 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 17.6 19.8 21.8 23.6 25.3 28.5 31.0 32.8 33.9 34.8 35.9 37.9 40.7 STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 19 17 16 14 11 7 5 8 12 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 7 5 7 12 13 20 15 16 17 16 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 15. 22. 29. 37. 43. 50. 56. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.2 17.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.91 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 52.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/27/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 27 35 42 49 57 63 70 76 77 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 25 33 40 47 55 61 68 74 75 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 29 36 43 51 57 64 70 71 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT