* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 50 53 55 57 60 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 50 53 55 57 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 26 29 32 34 33 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 9 5 5 2 2 12 20 26 29 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 9 11 12 9 6 6 2 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 78 63 19 360 10 293 321 209 206 201 197 210 206 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.6 26.5 26.0 26.2 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 138 137 138 140 138 133 121 117 119 124 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 143 140 141 141 136 133 122 118 120 124 125 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 71 71 70 70 66 59 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 51 60 69 85 94 89 89 92 84 76 64 200 MB DIV 72 53 34 23 23 26 20 16 18 14 18 21 11 700-850 TADV 4 1 -2 -7 -11 -5 -14 -6 2 5 1 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 288 384 518 656 799 1060 1239 1391 1640 2029 1785 1556 1440 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.1 12.2 13.8 15.2 16.1 16.7 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 18.2 19.6 21.1 22.5 23.9 26.4 28.3 30.1 32.7 36.4 40.5 44.7 48.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 11 9 13 17 20 20 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 5 5 8 14 12 14 10 0 0 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 33. 35. 37. 40. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 18.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/28/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 30 37 44 50 53 55 57 60 60 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 34 41 47 50 52 54 57 57 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 29 36 42 45 47 49 52 52 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT