* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 40 43 44 44 45 49 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 40 43 44 44 45 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 29 29 26 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 7 5 8 7 19 24 23 22 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 7 5 1 4 6 4 8 6 7 0 SHEAR DIR 47 31 37 66 110 171 206 228 227 217 229 247 249 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.2 26.3 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 136 135 137 129 121 119 122 127 131 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 138 137 136 138 133 124 122 125 130 132 136 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 68 69 69 67 61 56 51 50 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 41 49 65 74 96 82 90 100 69 68 60 69 200 MB DIV 44 28 25 -3 -2 -19 -2 8 20 21 7 17 24 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -8 -11 -6 -4 -8 -2 -13 -17 -20 -9 -1 LAND (KM) 342 428 523 624 743 973 1233 1647 1928 1577 1258 1050 931 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.9 13.1 14.2 14.8 14.8 14.3 14.1 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 19.0 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.5 26.0 28.8 32.8 37.4 41.9 46.0 49.6 52.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 18 21 23 21 19 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 5 8 14 5 3 1 7 12 28 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 25. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 19.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 34 40 43 44 44 45 49 52 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 32 38 41 42 42 43 47 50 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 33 36 37 37 38 42 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT