* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 29 31 33 35 36 39 44 49 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 29 31 33 35 36 39 44 49 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 25 24 22 20 19 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 4 2 6 11 18 20 21 25 19 19 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 8 8 6 8 6 9 7 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 43 44 70 139 195 230 228 222 198 189 199 201 172 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 136 135 138 133 124 120 123 128 129 130 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 137 135 139 136 128 123 126 130 130 129 131 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 70 68 67 63 59 53 49 47 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 49 62 71 83 84 85 110 104 80 67 67 56 200 MB DIV 12 6 -1 11 4 -9 2 23 20 -3 1 16 6 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -12 -7 -3 -9 0 -7 -10 -7 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 407 495 597 717 826 1051 1416 1863 1723 1387 1122 932 835 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.6 12.7 13.7 14.1 13.8 13.3 12.9 12.7 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 21.0 22.1 23.3 24.4 27.0 30.6 34.8 39.0 42.8 46.2 49.1 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 16 20 20 20 17 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 6 8 9 6 4 11 7 8 20 27 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 19. 24. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.3 20.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.80 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/28/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 26 29 31 33 35 36 39 44 49 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 24 27 29 31 33 34 37 42 47 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 22 24 26 28 29 32 37 42 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT