* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 28 27 26 26 28 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 28 27 26 26 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 10 15 21 26 31 33 38 34 33 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 6 9 10 6 6 6 3 6 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 144 158 210 211 218 216 218 218 219 211 227 218 227 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.3 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 131 126 119 118 119 122 124 128 130 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 133 131 127 120 117 118 120 121 124 126 130 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 8 7 9 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 64 61 59 57 52 47 44 43 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 88 87 84 81 96 97 107 88 74 61 42 24 200 MB DIV 1 20 17 8 11 9 27 23 28 26 40 14 22 700-850 TADV -5 0 -4 -6 -7 -2 -1 -10 -2 0 0 2 8 LAND (KM) 705 811 930 1071 1224 1582 1988 1763 1527 1364 1287 1250 1075 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.6 25.9 27.3 28.8 32.2 36.0 39.5 42.9 45.9 48.6 51.2 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 16 18 18 17 16 14 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 6 3 2 2 4 3 4 6 12 42 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 23.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 28 27 26 26 28 29 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 28 27 26 25 24 24 26 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 23 22 21 20 20 22 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT