* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 31 30 29 28 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 31 30 29 28 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 10 13 17 22 28 36 38 36 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 8 8 9 12 7 4 2 -3 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 131 148 176 189 197 204 210 216 217 219 225 224 227 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 134 130 127 119 116 116 118 120 123 127 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 133 129 126 118 114 113 114 115 118 120 121 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 61 60 60 55 52 50 51 47 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 88 85 86 91 97 100 102 95 72 36 11 -31 200 MB DIV -11 -1 8 26 30 38 17 30 25 41 23 22 16 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -6 -5 -1 -10 -5 -2 -2 -3 1 7 LAND (KM) 822 931 1046 1162 1293 1584 1902 1913 1773 1679 1628 1643 1541 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.2 17.0 18.1 19.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.7 26.9 28.1 29.4 32.2 35.2 38.0 40.8 43.2 45.8 48.3 50.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 5 2 2 7 4 2 1 4 3 7 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 24.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 31 30 29 28 30 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 30 30 29 28 27 26 28 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 26 25 24 23 22 24 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT