* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 31 30 29 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 31 30 29 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 11 13 19 26 31 38 40 36 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 8 8 8 10 10 5 5 -2 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 135 160 185 203 205 204 214 226 213 221 219 234 236 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 133 129 125 119 117 118 120 122 127 128 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 133 129 124 117 114 115 116 118 122 120 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 700-500 MB RH 64 66 64 66 63 59 54 50 48 48 45 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 83 82 87 94 93 105 94 67 40 16 -25 -65 200 MB DIV -6 5 31 31 34 24 20 28 36 20 19 19 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 -9 -6 -3 0 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 963 1090 1207 1345 1477 1788 1947 1773 1674 1609 1622 1549 1383 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.0 14.7 15.6 16.7 17.8 19.2 20.7 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.2 28.4 29.8 31.1 34.1 37.1 40.1 42.9 45.6 48.3 50.8 53.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 5 11 5 3 1 5 2 7 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -12. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 25.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 119.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 32 31 30 29 28 28 29 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 30 29 28 27 26 26 27 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 18 17 16 15 15 16 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT