* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 32 33 34 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 32 33 34 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 24 22 21 20 19 18 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 12 14 18 18 21 23 24 27 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 9 9 11 7 9 5 3 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 169 172 175 176 167 174 191 198 221 221 233 244 252 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.5 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 133 129 120 116 114 117 120 123 123 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 132 131 127 117 113 111 112 115 117 114 111 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 68 69 64 62 59 54 48 44 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 75 79 80 69 77 69 71 53 10 -19 -83 -112 200 MB DIV -2 22 43 43 39 47 46 42 44 -2 -3 13 -18 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 9 7 0 -3 1 1 3 11 11 12 LAND (KM) 1024 1115 1186 1268 1360 1576 1836 2067 1968 1903 1890 1876 1761 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.8 14.9 16.4 17.6 19.1 20.6 22.2 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 26.3 27.2 28.0 28.9 29.9 32.1 34.6 37.1 39.7 42.6 45.5 48.0 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 14 15 16 15 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 7 6 7 10 2 0 0 7 5 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 26.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 31 32 33 34 36 36 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 30 29 30 31 32 34 34 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 26 25 26 27 28 30 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 18 19 20 21 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT