* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 31 31 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 31 31 32 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 21 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 17 22 28 30 29 29 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 5 6 7 9 7 5 0 0 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 193 217 219 212 189 204 219 213 215 212 233 235 275 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 130 127 123 117 115 116 120 123 124 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 128 124 120 114 112 112 115 117 116 112 106 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 68 64 59 56 52 47 43 39 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 81 88 83 85 92 85 83 44 5 -65 -104 -135 200 MB DIV 11 20 32 35 43 42 44 61 30 2 -9 -13 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -7 -4 0 1 6 17 13 6 LAND (KM) 1152 1260 1354 1452 1561 1807 2025 1931 1861 1839 1851 1766 1711 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.4 19.9 21.5 23.1 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.7 28.8 29.8 30.8 31.9 34.3 36.9 39.5 42.3 45.1 47.7 49.5 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 13 10 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 9 13 2 0 0 3 3 4 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 27.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.83 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.67 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.9% 9.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 2.7% Bayesian: 999.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 31 31 32 33 34 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 29 28 29 29 30 31 32 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 25 24 25 25 26 27 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 18 17 18 18 19 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT