* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 32 33 35 35 35 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 32 33 35 35 35 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 13 16 19 20 23 23 26 23 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 9 9 7 8 4 -2 -2 0 -1 -4 -8 SHEAR DIR 188 188 173 161 163 179 184 195 198 211 226 252 273 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 132 127 122 118 115 118 121 125 125 126 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 130 125 119 116 112 115 118 120 117 113 110 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 68 65 64 58 54 47 44 39 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 83 86 81 81 82 76 74 62 33 -11 -73 -108 -138 200 MB DIV 7 20 29 44 44 31 50 66 16 0 3 -11 -1 700-850 TADV 5 6 5 4 1 0 -1 -2 0 8 14 13 4 LAND (KM) 1297 1419 1515 1609 1705 1927 1928 1840 1760 1760 1716 1569 1503 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.4 13.0 14.1 15.5 16.9 18.4 20.0 21.7 23.1 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 30.2 31.2 32.2 33.2 35.4 38.0 40.7 43.9 47.0 49.6 51.5 52.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 14 14 16 17 16 13 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 17 21 14 6 2 1 2 3 9 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 29.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.63 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.80 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.27 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.4% 10.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% Logistic: 4.7% 18.5% 10.7% 4.9% 0.0% 6.2% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 3.6% 12.2% 7.2% 4.6% 0.0% 2.1% 5.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 32 32 33 35 35 35 36 38 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 30 30 31 33 33 33 34 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 25 26 28 28 28 29 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 18 19 21 21 21 22 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT