* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 07/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 48 50 51 54 59 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 48 50 51 54 59 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 38 40 43 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 8 12 13 17 16 12 13 7 12 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 1 0 -3 -2 1 1 1 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 160 129 122 130 134 135 153 150 176 223 283 329 255 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.5 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 136 135 134 132 131 128 129 135 142 147 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 135 132 132 130 131 129 132 140 150 155 159 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 68 69 71 72 70 70 65 68 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 42 37 37 31 31 24 25 25 32 28 34 200 MB DIV 18 8 21 29 40 88 78 30 22 25 42 74 39 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 2 -2 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1844 1881 1802 1734 1683 1571 1432 1274 1069 908 650 390 384 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.6 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.2 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.0 35.9 36.7 37.4 39.1 41.3 44.2 47.6 51.5 55.8 60.1 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 9 10 13 15 18 20 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 19 23 26 21 10 8 20 28 56 45 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 29. 34. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 33.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 07/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.76 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.78 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.75 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 19.2% 12.1% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% Logistic: 8.8% 27.1% 15.8% 8.5% 0.0% 11.2% 17.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 14.3% 4.9% 0.6% 0.7% 2.5% 6.9% Consensus: 5.6% 20.2% 10.9% 6.5% 0.2% 4.6% 13.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 07/31/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 40 44 48 50 51 54 59 64 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 41 45 47 48 51 56 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 36 40 42 43 46 51 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 27 31 33 34 37 42 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT