* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 48 54 58 59 61 65 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 48 54 58 59 61 65 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 37 39 39 38 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 8 8 3 6 14 20 18 18 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 0 0 3 -2 -3 -1 3 2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 77 69 58 82 125 170 243 243 237 248 254 238 191 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.1 26.7 26.1 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 137 137 137 128 123 117 117 124 128 129 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 133 134 136 126 119 111 113 120 125 125 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 78 80 81 77 70 59 50 46 40 37 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 99 98 93 97 97 108 107 98 98 98 105 98 102 200 MB DIV 29 35 54 76 61 53 30 24 18 9 -3 4 -4 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 7 3 7 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 77 134 183 248 259 519 860 1129 1449 1846 2183 1874 1648 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.4 13.1 14.1 16.3 18.1 19.4 20.1 19.9 19.0 18.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.8 22.1 24.8 27.7 30.9 34.7 38.3 41.6 44.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 11 13 16 15 15 17 18 17 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 7 12 8 7 17 4 0 5 17 10 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 28. 34. 38. 39. 41. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.7 17.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 21.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/17/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 32 40 48 54 58 59 61 65 67 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 29 37 45 51 55 56 58 62 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 23 31 39 45 49 50 52 56 58 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT