* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 53 61 69 73 76 75 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 53 61 69 73 76 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 51 57 59 59 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 9 11 4 3 4 3 4 10 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 -3 0 3 4 1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 78 101 95 101 114 100 178 243 175 251 245 244 233 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 133 133 134 130 130 124 122 123 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 130 129 130 126 126 115 110 114 116 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 71 69 62 55 51 49 54 57 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 101 102 112 134 116 101 112 108 114 102 87 39 22 200 MB DIV 60 61 72 78 60 43 37 45 49 46 37 35 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 1 6 1 4 5 8 LAND (KM) 335 393 479 591 709 971 1254 1542 1786 1880 1919 1951 2008 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.6 16.5 16.3 17.2 19.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 20.9 21.9 23.0 24.1 26.5 29.1 31.8 34.1 35.0 35.3 35.6 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 7 3 8 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 8 7 19 20 10 13 18 13 10 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 41. 49. 53. 56. 55. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 20.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/17/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 32 42 53 61 69 73 76 75 73 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 29 39 50 58 66 70 73 72 70 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 33 44 52 60 64 67 66 64 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT