* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 34 45 57 65 69 71 69 66 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 34 45 57 65 69 71 69 66 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 51 58 59 56 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 6 4 2 2 10 14 17 22 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -1 -1 2 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 78 96 97 82 74 37 36 233 243 225 229 218 215 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 138 138 133 131 126 122 120 119 119 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 134 133 133 127 124 117 113 109 109 108 109 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 68 67 63 61 58 55 53 53 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 114 114 115 101 102 110 107 99 73 63 33 19 1 200 MB DIV 47 64 60 55 56 82 61 49 42 71 42 37 8 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 4 7 6 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 619 712 797 899 980 1159 1335 1497 1652 1750 1849 1946 2056 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.3 15.0 16.0 17.2 18.2 19.4 20.6 22.1 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 22.9 23.9 24.8 25.8 26.6 28.3 29.9 31.3 32.6 33.7 34.8 35.8 36.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 13 12 18 6 5 4 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 26. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 37. 45. 49. 51. 49. 46. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 22.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 29 34 45 57 65 69 71 69 66 62 18HR AGO 20 19 22 26 31 42 54 62 66 68 66 63 59 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 25 36 48 56 60 62 60 57 53 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT