* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 49 55 62 64 67 66 63 56 52 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 49 55 62 64 67 66 63 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 43 47 55 61 63 62 59 55 51 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 4 1 3 7 10 16 15 16 20 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 1 3 2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 65 52 54 8 301 282 238 254 247 243 223 238 239 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 26.7 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 136 135 132 123 117 120 118 119 118 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 133 133 129 118 110 111 105 107 109 108 104 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 70 66 59 51 49 48 53 56 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 16 16 15 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 99 93 80 82 96 88 96 91 93 66 15 -23 -54 200 MB DIV 63 63 56 58 57 51 59 34 40 40 54 9 26 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 2 1 3 4 11 10 14 11 5 LAND (KM) 565 609 670 762 881 1164 1412 1648 1805 1828 1792 1773 1772 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.2 15.1 16.2 18.0 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.7 21.4 24.0 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.6 25.6 27.9 30.4 32.7 34.2 34.5 34.3 34.1 33.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 14 14 15 12 9 4 5 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 6 11 1 6 5 8 7 0 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 25. 32. 34. 37. 36. 33. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 22.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.65 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 39 44 49 55 62 64 67 66 63 56 52 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 49 56 58 61 60 57 50 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 42 49 51 54 53 50 43 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 31 38 40 43 42 39 32 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT