* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 52 60 65 67 65 60 55 51 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 52 60 65 67 65 60 55 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 34 37 46 55 61 60 56 52 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 7 3 3 11 17 20 25 30 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -5 -5 -2 -3 -2 2 0 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 55 52 60 65 43 300 234 247 235 237 222 226 228 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 139 139 137 131 123 120 118 119 120 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 135 135 132 126 116 111 107 108 108 108 104 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 71 67 63 57 54 53 54 50 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 110 107 102 100 96 90 92 72 74 49 19 -16 -34 200 MB DIV 49 50 57 63 69 62 60 45 52 44 42 14 22 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 1 1 4 6 5 7 5 6 2 LAND (KM) 739 825 897 974 1043 1219 1438 1631 1760 1875 1973 2065 2110 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.5 16.2 17.9 19.1 20.2 21.4 23.1 25.0 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.0 24.9 25.7 26.5 27.2 28.8 30.6 32.5 33.9 35.1 36.1 36.9 37.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 11 10 8 10 9 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 9 9 19 1 7 6 1 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 35. 40. 42. 40. 35. 30. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 24.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 33 38 43 52 60 65 67 65 60 55 51 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 38 47 55 60 62 60 55 50 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 40 48 53 55 53 48 43 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 37 42 44 42 37 32 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT