* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/19/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 37 47 53 58 59 58 54 51 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 37 47 53 58 59 58 54 51 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 26 28 34 41 45 46 46 44 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 2 10 17 24 30 34 36 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 0 -2 -4 0 -1 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 63 66 66 72 52 169 255 240 242 236 233 227 256 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 139 135 135 132 126 119 118 119 121 120 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 134 129 128 126 120 112 109 109 108 104 101 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 64 65 63 59 55 51 47 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 109 106 105 106 90 83 63 43 26 11 -20 -35 -64 200 MB DIV 43 48 62 65 58 62 45 46 42 48 2 10 -14 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 0 4 3 7 4 6 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 875 984 1074 1145 1206 1300 1426 1572 1720 1892 2046 2169 2224 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 15.5 17.3 19.5 21.4 23.4 25.1 26.7 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 25.4 26.5 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.6 30.6 32.0 33.6 35.3 36.7 37.7 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 7 9 12 13 12 12 10 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 8 8 15 3 4 0 3 1 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 22. 28. 33. 34. 33. 29. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 25.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/19/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/19/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 33 37 47 53 58 59 58 54 51 47 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 45 51 56 57 56 52 49 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 39 45 50 51 50 46 43 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 35 40 41 40 36 33 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT