* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 62 63 62 58 52 46 41 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 62 63 62 58 52 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 52 59 61 58 54 48 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 7 6 6 12 20 25 36 38 38 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -4 -1 -1 -1 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 69 69 68 42 39 226 248 239 241 235 235 251 269 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.5 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 142 141 139 135 127 120 116 115 115 112 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 136 133 132 128 121 112 107 104 101 95 94 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 64 64 67 64 59 55 48 48 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 113 110 109 100 90 79 59 33 17 -6 -28 -62 -80 200 MB DIV 42 49 54 59 65 62 43 54 38 27 -3 -18 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 7 6 1 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1039 1142 1213 1275 1313 1375 1496 1595 1740 1887 2008 2038 2014 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.3 15.7 17.7 20.1 22.2 24.3 26.0 27.0 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.0 28.7 29.3 29.7 30.3 31.2 32.3 33.8 35.2 36.2 36.3 36.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 9 13 12 13 11 8 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 11 11 12 2 4 0 5 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 0. -5. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 26. 32. 33. 32. 28. 22. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 27.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.80 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.51 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.45 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 18.1% 11.5% 9.9% 7.4% 9.8% 19.6% Logistic: 16.6% 43.8% 24.4% 15.3% 0.0% 25.1% 40.9% Bayesian: 4.5% 39.3% 15.4% 1.7% 0.4% 14.2% 25.1% Consensus: 9.0% 33.7% 17.1% 9.0% 2.6% 16.4% 28.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 49 56 62 63 62 58 52 46 41 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 44 51 57 58 57 53 47 41 36 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 43 49 50 49 45 39 33 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 38 39 38 34 28 22 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT