* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 07/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 38 41 45 46 45 45 48 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 38 41 45 46 45 45 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 36 37 35 34 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 13 12 12 7 16 18 25 26 31 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 2 0 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 55 56 57 35 26 341 316 271 287 294 318 339 347 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 127 128 132 133 134 132 132 136 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 127 126 127 132 132 130 124 122 125 126 131 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 10 10 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 70 67 63 59 56 55 52 52 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 55 50 41 33 20 0 -39 -54 -70 -68 -76 200 MB DIV 15 20 29 16 3 6 30 17 1 -19 -22 -20 -42 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -3 3 0 11 10 5 6 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1521 1470 1415 1360 1318 1255 1252 1285 1199 1103 914 754 546 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.9 14.2 15.7 17.4 18.8 19.7 20.1 20.2 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.2 40.0 41.0 42.1 43.3 45.9 48.7 51.2 53.5 55.3 57.2 58.8 60.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 13 15 16 14 11 9 9 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 5 7 25 24 23 14 14 16 34 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 13. 16. 20. 21. 20. 20. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 39.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 07/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.58 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 65.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.6% 10.8% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 11.9% 6.1% 1.7% 0.7% 4.7% 10.2% 16.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% Consensus: 2.8% 9.7% 5.8% 2.9% 0.2% 1.7% 7.4% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 07/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 07/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 35 38 41 45 46 45 45 48 51 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 35 38 42 43 42 42 45 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 30 33 37 38 37 37 40 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 23 27 28 27 27 30 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT