* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 07/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 43 45 45 46 50 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 43 45 45 46 50 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 33 32 31 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 14 11 12 13 23 24 28 24 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 2 1 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 56 54 35 31 37 326 301 273 288 297 332 330 12 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 127 128 134 133 134 131 132 136 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 128 126 128 134 131 129 122 122 124 127 130 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 70 74 73 70 69 63 60 57 54 54 52 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 36 27 21 12 4 -24 -51 -62 -67 -71 -79 200 MB DIV 24 28 24 6 3 25 29 12 -9 -26 -10 -41 -31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 3 4 12 7 8 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1498 1458 1404 1352 1323 1260 1299 1289 1218 1085 916 733 545 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.2 14.6 16.4 18.0 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 40.2 41.2 42.4 43.6 46.4 49.2 51.6 53.7 55.5 57.2 59.0 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 12 13 14 16 15 13 10 9 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 4 5 10 20 36 17 13 13 15 37 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -3. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 25. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 39.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 07/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 58.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 10.6% 8.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 14.5% 7.4% 2.5% 1.5% 5.9% 13.9% 26.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 7.0% Consensus: 2.0% 9.1% 5.3% 2.7% 0.5% 2.1% 8.5% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 07/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 07/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 43 45 45 46 50 54 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 34 38 41 43 43 44 48 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 33 36 38 38 39 43 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 28 30 30 31 35 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT