* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 07/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 34 35 37 37 38 42 48 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 34 35 37 37 38 42 48 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 29 28 27 28 30 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 5 14 18 27 28 27 20 9 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -3 1 -2 -4 0 -1 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 27 28 40 308 305 303 281 292 301 332 345 5 324 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 128 131 133 133 132 130 132 136 140 143 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 128 132 133 131 127 120 121 125 131 136 143 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 66 64 59 57 54 54 53 47 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 13 9 1 -4 -28 -51 -63 -57 -59 -61 -59 200 MB DIV 1 -1 1 9 29 24 1 -11 -28 -12 -41 -20 -24 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 5 5 5 13 9 9 0 -2 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1403 1368 1332 1315 1288 1339 1310 1250 1096 912 700 448 196 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.3 14.1 14.9 16.8 18.3 19.5 19.9 20.0 19.7 19.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.3 42.3 43.6 44.9 46.4 49.2 51.6 53.6 55.4 57.2 59.2 61.7 64.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 16 17 15 13 10 9 8 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 32 19 36 14 12 13 16 40 27 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -0. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 17. 23. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 41.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 07/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.72 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 88.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 11.2% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.8% 2.3% 0.5% 0.4% 2.5% 7.4% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% Consensus: 1.5% 6.3% 4.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.9% 5.3% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 07/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 07/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 32 34 35 37 37 38 42 48 55 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 31 32 34 34 35 39 45 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 27 28 30 30 31 35 41 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 20 22 22 23 27 33 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT