* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 31 39 48 51 53 56 62 67 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 31 39 48 51 53 56 62 67 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 31 35 35 35 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 15 17 15 7 9 11 20 17 15 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -4 -2 -2 0 1 0 3 2 1 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 53 59 44 64 67 14 331 278 290 278 280 257 283 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 147 151 157 158 153 152 153 158 159 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 156 157 161 169 169 160 155 153 157 157 165 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 69 73 76 74 69 64 59 59 59 59 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 53 58 48 34 -4 -15 -21 -15 -13 0 3 200 MB DIV 8 0 -3 2 17 78 62 36 0 -5 12 18 33 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -13 -12 -13 -7 -3 5 -2 -8 -8 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 1817 1870 1709 1556 1425 1181 1038 991 1004 850 666 564 461 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 9.0 10.0 11.4 13.1 14.5 15.5 15.8 15.8 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.5 36.1 37.7 39.2 42.3 45.5 48.7 51.9 54.8 57.6 60.1 62.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 16 16 18 18 15 14 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 20 13 14 15 18 38 25 45 53 55 61 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 31. 36. 41. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 28. 31. 33. 36. 42. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.5 33.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 47.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 10.8% 5.0% 1.1% 0.8% 5.3% 26.1% 52.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 1.8% 8.7% 18.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 31 39 48 51 53 56 62 67 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 30 38 47 50 52 55 61 66 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 26 34 43 46 48 51 57 62 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT