* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 39 52 66 75 85 91 96 105 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 39 52 66 75 85 91 96 105 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 32 40 46 54 61 68 77 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 2 7 3 10 2 7 6 5 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 3 1 0 2 1 3 3 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 58 55 57 360 273 190 207 316 294 321 285 337 283 SST (C) 28.6 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 157 159 161 163 162 158 156 155 156 160 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 175 175 175 176 175 162 152 149 151 155 155 152 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 68 67 62 61 64 64 66 65 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 13 15 19 20 24 24 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 45 40 42 30 13 14 2 13 22 26 48 200 MB DIV 32 34 70 103 109 95 53 30 64 77 47 44 38 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -9 -9 -11 -3 8 0 0 -1 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 1512 1323 1164 1036 931 786 709 508 412 455 515 429 284 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.4 12.3 12.7 12.8 13.2 14.4 15.4 16.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 40.7 42.8 44.9 47.1 51.4 54.7 56.8 58.1 59.0 60.4 62.3 64.0 STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 21 22 22 19 14 7 6 8 9 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 30 31 36 52 61 75 63 62 63 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 1. 9. 19. 25. 31. 36. 41. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 6. 10. 11. 15. 15. 14. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 19. 32. 46. 55. 65. 71. 76. 85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.6 38.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 152.8 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 51.3% 28.6% 13.6% 8.1% 38.2% 47.8% 67.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% Consensus: 2.3% 17.6% 9.6% 4.6% 2.7% 13.3% 16.3% 22.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 09/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 27 39 52 66 75 85 91 96 105 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 37 50 64 73 83 89 94 103 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 33 46 60 69 79 85 90 99 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT