* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 37 44 51 59 64 68 71 74 78 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 37 44 51 59 64 68 71 74 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 43 47 51 56 63 70 73 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 2 8 6 12 7 2 11 9 11 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 3 3 2 0 1 3 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 53 77 70 246 261 195 221 332 331 295 276 229 286 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 161 163 162 161 159 158 158 161 163 164 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 176 176 176 176 175 170 159 153 155 158 162 159 155 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 -53.7 -53.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 70 66 64 65 61 59 62 62 62 64 62 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 44 40 39 32 14 9 9 0 2 10 29 32 200 MB DIV 44 75 109 105 88 44 23 46 83 49 60 45 65 700-850 TADV -12 -7 -8 -11 -11 2 3 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1303 1135 1007 888 801 725 458 337 348 458 401 237 212 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.1 12.3 13.4 14.9 15.8 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 43.4 45.7 48.0 50.2 54.1 57.0 58.3 59.2 60.5 62.9 65.1 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 23 22 21 17 10 6 9 11 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 37 28 28 51 65 74 72 64 64 76 119 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 2. 10. 19. 24. 29. 34. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 19. 26. 34. 39. 43. 46. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 41.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.88 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.6 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.54 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 43.3% 23.2% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 18.4% 73.2% 53.7% 39.6% 31.7% 60.9% 54.1% 64.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 8.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 2.8% Consensus: 8.9% 41.5% 26.3% 16.6% 10.6% 20.8% 24.5% 22.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 09/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 33 37 44 51 59 64 68 71 74 78 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 33 40 47 55 60 64 67 70 74 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 34 41 49 54 58 61 64 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 33 41 46 50 53 56 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT