* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 42 54 65 77 86 91 102 106 115 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 42 54 65 77 86 91 102 106 115 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 35 40 50 59 69 80 92 103 114 119 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 4 8 6 4 6 7 3 2 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 -1 -2 3 -1 4 1 1 4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 103 103 188 186 155 192 339 307 345 295 56 228 74 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 162 161 160 158 157 159 161 161 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 176 176 176 175 172 164 153 153 156 160 157 153 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -53.7 -53.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 60 60 61 61 65 64 63 60 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 12 16 16 19 20 21 25 24 29 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 41 30 27 15 12 10 0 11 27 40 47 200 MB DIV 95 123 112 85 40 40 50 75 80 36 51 44 92 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -8 -9 -5 4 3 1 0 -3 -1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1134 998 881 808 758 576 377 344 436 552 295 200 178 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.4 12.2 12.1 12.7 14.4 15.8 16.5 16.2 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 46.1 48.4 50.7 52.7 55.9 57.8 58.5 59.4 61.2 63.6 65.8 66.7 STM SPEED (KT) 25 24 23 21 18 13 5 7 10 12 12 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 36 26 30 47 55 72 76 63 30 67 86 108 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -2. 3. 11. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 7. 10. 12. 11. 16. 15. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 29. 40. 52. 61. 66. 77. 81. 90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 43.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.91 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.2 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.57 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 46.9% 28.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 27.7% 0.0% Logistic: 19.8% 76.5% 58.8% 44.9% 36.1% 59.1% 45.9% 56.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 8.7% 3.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2.9% Consensus: 9.8% 44.1% 30.0% 18.9% 12.1% 19.8% 24.6% 19.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 09/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 36 42 54 65 77 86 91 102 106 115 18HR AGO 25 24 27 32 38 50 61 73 82 87 98 102 111 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 32 44 55 67 76 81 92 96 105 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 33 44 56 65 70 81 85 94 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT