* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 48 59 72 82 92 96 105 114 116 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 48 59 72 82 92 96 105 114 116 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 55 65 77 91 100 108 114 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 10 15 3 3 10 6 8 4 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -4 -3 3 1 1 3 3 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 145 188 181 159 171 177 355 336 302 354 114 325 70 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 160 159 158 155 158 158 160 161 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 176 176 176 172 167 158 145 156 157 160 158 152 145 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 59 60 62 63 69 64 61 60 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 13 15 17 17 20 23 22 25 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 32 26 25 18 27 7 14 20 42 54 52 200 MB DIV 114 118 94 47 33 42 55 89 81 37 18 43 39 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -8 -4 0 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1036 931 862 821 737 421 318 375 524 493 224 188 179 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.0 12.2 11.9 12.9 15.1 16.6 16.8 16.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 45.8 48.2 50.6 52.8 54.6 57.4 58.3 58.3 59.0 61.4 64.2 66.2 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 23 20 17 10 1 9 12 15 12 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 21 27 50 49 68 69 75 58 24 72 92 116 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 12. 16. 15. 17. 22. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 29. 42. 52. 62. 66. 75. 84. 86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 45.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 181.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 40.9% 18.7% 9.1% 7.4% 14.6% 21.7% 50.1% Logistic: 10.3% 40.5% 20.9% 8.6% 7.6% 31.9% 20.6% 26.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 6.1% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 2.8% Consensus: 6.4% 29.2% 14.3% 6.0% 5.0% 15.7% 14.2% 26.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 09/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 48 59 72 82 92 96 105 114 116 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 44 55 68 78 88 92 101 110 112 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 48 61 71 81 85 94 103 105 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 37 50 60 70 74 83 92 94 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT