* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 56 68 76 84 90 98 106 108 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 56 68 76 84 90 98 106 108 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 50 58 68 79 88 97 103 107 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 16 14 1 3 7 6 3 6 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -4 0 3 8 3 1 1 -4 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 186 206 181 184 197 140 354 335 280 306 256 357 257 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 159 158 158 156 160 159 158 161 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 176 173 174 169 165 157 147 161 162 159 159 149 155 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 60 59 59 64 69 66 58 58 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 16 17 20 21 22 24 26 28 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 41 33 26 20 11 18 15 13 20 29 50 54 54 200 MB DIV 102 86 49 39 38 47 88 98 31 29 13 78 44 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -2 1 3 0 3 1 -1 -1 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 965 914 883 805 622 318 226 401 612 215 100 257 56 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.8 13.4 13.7 13.7 12.8 12.1 13.9 16.6 17.9 17.0 15.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 49.7 52.0 54.2 56.1 58.9 59.4 59.1 60.2 63.7 66.7 67.1 66.9 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 22 20 18 9 2 13 17 17 13 4 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 46 50 55 74 61 67 48 81 96 116 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 14. 15. 17. 20. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 38. 46. 54. 60. 68. 76. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 47.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.26 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.5 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 189.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 21.2% 14.1% 8.3% 6.5% 13.6% 18.2% 45.1% Logistic: 7.0% 22.2% 9.7% 3.5% 2.5% 20.3% 12.1% 20.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 4.5% 15.8% 8.4% 3.9% 3.0% 11.4% 10.1% 21.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 09/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 45 56 68 76 84 90 98 106 108 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 52 64 72 80 86 94 102 104 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 46 58 66 74 80 88 96 98 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 36 48 56 64 70 78 86 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT