* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 09/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 45 55 66 72 77 85 89 98 99 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 45 55 66 72 77 85 89 98 99 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 40 47 53 61 70 79 87 94 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 10 11 6 0 6 5 6 5 6 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 0 1 6 5 3 2 -1 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 213 174 178 201 206 301 357 334 315 268 301 9 311 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 156 157 157 157 157 155 159 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 169 165 160 149 152 154 155 151 154 143 151 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 58 59 60 66 68 62 59 57 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 20 21 23 22 22 25 24 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 25 18 19 22 5 9 15 26 43 57 48 200 MB DIV 62 58 63 57 56 63 93 56 31 28 39 57 65 700-850 TADV -6 -2 1 5 6 0 1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 854 817 820 649 491 311 337 505 535 234 55 174 69 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.3 13.2 12.7 13.2 15.0 17.1 18.0 17.5 16.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 51.7 53.7 55.6 57.2 58.9 59.1 59.2 60.8 63.5 66.3 67.3 67.4 STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 17 14 4 7 11 14 13 11 2 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 38 50 51 64 73 72 58 43 80 79 123 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 10. 9. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 15. 25. 36. 42. 47. 55. 59. 68. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 49.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 09/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.83 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.98 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 198.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 29.5% 15.4% 9.1% 7.6% 14.6% 19.1% 43.7% Logistic: 10.3% 32.9% 17.2% 9.7% 8.7% 30.7% 15.9% 18.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 5.7% 22.1% 11.3% 6.4% 5.5% 15.3% 11.8% 20.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962017 INVEST 09/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 09/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 39 45 55 66 72 77 85 89 98 99 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 42 52 63 69 74 82 86 95 96 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 35 45 56 62 67 75 79 88 89 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 36 47 53 58 66 70 79 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT