* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/11/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 49 51 53 54 56 55 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 47 49 51 53 54 56 55 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 36 38 41 44 49 52 56 58 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 42 38 32 25 28 35 29 22 17 17 18 24 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 253 252 254 255 257 257 265 288 302 311 291 344 360 SST (C) 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.7 25.2 24.4 23.6 22.8 22.3 22.3 22.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 97 98 99 100 102 108 104 98 91 86 86 91 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 85 87 87 90 98 97 89 80 74 75 80 86 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.5 -56.1 -57.1 -57.6 -57.6 -58.2 -59.5 -60.2 -61.0 -61.3 -60.6 -59.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 39 37 39 50 61 65 61 53 50 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 47 38 52 74 88 85 44 33 23 15 9 -18 200 MB DIV -20 -28 -23 -18 -9 34 44 13 2 -17 -14 -91 -57 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 0 -6 -7 5 18 15 8 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1925 1996 2076 2149 2158 1954 1644 1520 1557 1568 1493 1372 1243 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.0 29.2 27.5 28.7 32.0 34.6 35.9 35.8 34.2 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 33.9 34.6 35.5 36.5 36.9 35.3 31.5 28.5 27.4 26.7 25.8 25.4 25.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 13 21 18 10 5 6 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 19. 22. 26. 27. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. 25. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.2 33.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/11/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/11/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 43 47 49 51 53 54 56 55 51 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 43 45 47 49 50 52 51 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 37 39 41 43 44 46 45 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 29 31 33 34 36 35 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT