* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 45 51 58 60 62 63 66 65 57 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 45 51 58 60 62 63 66 65 57 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 44 48 51 55 59 61 57 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 35 29 23 23 26 25 18 18 15 16 39 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 1 -3 -9 SHEAR DIR 246 242 237 240 252 278 300 305 312 289 345 5 16 SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.2 23.5 22.8 22.7 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 100 102 104 102 96 88 88 91 90 91 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 84 86 89 93 93 86 76 77 80 78 79 84 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.7 -57.5 -57.6 -57.8 -58.5 -59.6 -60.0 -60.4 -60.3 -59.7 -59.2 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 45 43 39 39 40 51 59 62 56 53 52 44 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 11 13 14 13 12 12 11 11 11 8 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 60 74 87 101 86 63 38 29 8 -19 -60 -100 200 MB DIV -26 -10 -10 3 43 40 14 -7 -10 -11 -92 -106 -87 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 7 4 -1 12 9 8 2 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2014 2068 2089 2058 1947 1687 1642 1692 1620 1432 1266 1189 1263 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.5 29.7 32.6 34.5 34.7 33.9 32.9 32.0 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.6 36.0 35.9 34.9 31.6 29.6 29.1 28.1 26.3 24.9 24.6 26.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 7 11 18 14 5 6 9 6 5 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 1. 1. -0. -5. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 15. 21. 28. 30. 32. 33. 36. 35. 27. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.0 35.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 189.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/12/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 39 45 51 58 60 62 63 66 65 57 44 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 54 56 58 59 62 61 53 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 45 47 49 50 53 52 44 31 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 33 35 37 38 41 40 32 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT