* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/12/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 48 53 58 59 58 61 63 62 52 38 V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 48 53 58 59 58 61 63 62 52 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 46 50 55 59 62 62 59 56 50 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 37 27 17 16 21 22 21 12 16 21 48 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 -3 -5 -4 -1 -2 -14 SHEAR DIR 243 238 247 251 263 287 300 305 305 291 327 5 9 SST (C) 24.3 24.2 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.3 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 96 95 93 96 98 96 91 86 87 92 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 84 83 81 78 84 88 86 81 74 75 82 85 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.7 -57.2 -58.2 -58.7 -58.9 -58.8 -59.2 -59.9 -60.6 -60.8 -59.8 -58.5 200 MB VXT (C) 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 51 47 46 51 58 61 58 54 43 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 15 13 11 10 10 10 10 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 77 91 93 87 102 96 60 12 6 15 5 -49 -75 200 MB DIV -8 -3 4 6 26 12 0 5 3 -23 -76 -111 -38 700-850 TADV 10 9 5 4 12 0 5 11 11 7 0 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1867 1868 1895 1947 1960 1856 1653 1422 1255 1201 1228 1234 1309 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.1 30.9 31.3 31.4 31.2 31.5 32.8 34.4 35.6 35.6 33.9 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.5 33.3 33.4 33.8 33.9 32.8 30.3 26.9 23.8 22.2 22.5 23.9 26.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 6 3 1 8 14 16 13 5 6 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 26. 29. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 24. 23. 26. 28. 27. 17. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.7 33.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/12/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.16 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 185.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 10.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/12/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 48 53 58 59 58 61 63 62 52 38 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 49 54 55 54 57 59 58 48 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 41 46 47 46 49 51 50 40 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 35 36 35 38 40 39 29 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT