* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 54 58 62 64 69 68 59 44 30 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 54 58 62 64 69 68 59 44 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 47 53 57 61 65 63 57 50 40 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 29 18 16 16 14 18 15 8 17 42 76 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -1 -4 -5 0 -3 -3 -4 0 -4 -11 -9 SHEAR DIR 234 242 245 255 276 307 305 307 295 357 9 10 6 SST (C) 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.4 23.2 23.2 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.3 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 97 96 96 92 92 93 92 87 89 93 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 83 84 84 84 80 80 82 80 75 77 82 83 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.2 -58.0 -58.4 -59.1 -59.7 -59.6 -59.6 -59.8 -59.8 -59.6 -58.5 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 48 50 51 51 50 56 52 51 52 51 45 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 13 12 11 13 12 9 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 88 100 107 115 107 60 60 10 -22 -23 -59 -89 -104 200 MB DIV -4 15 32 51 19 37 -2 -1 -28 -79 -82 -60 -58 700-850 TADV 6 4 9 14 5 -1 7 4 2 -1 -1 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1912 1898 1878 1861 1848 1810 1738 1527 1323 1227 1217 1277 1393 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.0 30.5 31.1 31.8 33.1 33.6 33.4 33.2 33.3 32.9 32.1 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 33.7 33.4 32.9 32.4 31.3 30.2 27.8 25.4 24.2 24.3 25.6 27.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 8 8 7 7 10 8 3 4 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -7. -18. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -8. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 34. 33. 24. 9. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.7 34.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 185.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.1% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/12/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 49 54 58 62 64 69 68 59 44 30 18HR AGO 35 34 38 44 49 53 57 59 64 63 54 39 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 46 50 52 57 56 47 32 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 34 38 40 45 44 35 20 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT