* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 54 60 64 63 54 38 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 49 54 60 64 63 54 38 24 DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 41 44 51 57 60 60 58 50 39 29 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 17 15 14 12 7 10 21 71 87 78 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -1 -4 -4 -2 -2 -4 -21 -23 -10 -13 SHEAR DIR 264 277 290 301 307 310 287 293 344 358 357 348 346 SST (C) 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.2 22.9 22.3 21.9 21.9 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 94 93 92 89 85 82 87 91 93 95 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 83 83 82 82 79 75 70 76 80 83 84 87 200 MB T (C) -58.7 -59.0 -59.2 -59.4 -59.3 -59.7 -60.1 -60.6 -60.3 -58.7 -58.3 -58.3 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 54 57 56 52 49 44 39 37 40 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 15 12 9 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 116 102 78 68 69 24 25 31 10 -22 -44 -75 -74 200 MB DIV 43 38 34 32 8 10 -21 -20 -81 -65 -56 -82 -67 700-850 TADV 9 1 0 1 9 16 5 -1 -3 -6 -6 0 6 LAND (KM) 1895 1865 1814 1762 1704 1576 1456 1375 1386 1355 1316 1229 1075 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.6 32.2 32.8 33.6 35.0 36.0 36.1 35.3 33.5 31.5 29.6 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.3 32.7 31.8 30.9 29.8 27.4 25.3 24.4 24.8 25.6 26.4 26.4 25.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 12 12 8 2 8 11 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. -5. -19. -32. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -14. -20. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 25. 29. 28. 19. 3. -11. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 33.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.17 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 176.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.4% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/13/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 49 54 60 64 63 54 38 24 DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 50 56 60 59 50 34 20 DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 43 49 53 52 43 27 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 39 43 42 33 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT