* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 45 48 54 60 61 53 40 30 25 24 V (KT) LAND 35 37 41 45 48 54 60 61 53 40 30 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 44 51 57 58 55 49 43 39 38 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 14 14 13 10 8 16 57 76 40 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -5 -14 -19 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 274 286 291 293 307 304 280 307 331 328 305 283 260 SST (C) 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.9 22.2 21.1 20.2 20.3 20.3 18.9 17.3 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 94 93 94 94 93 89 82 77 76 78 78 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 83 84 84 79 73 69 67 69 72 71 70 200 MB T (C) -58.8 -59.0 -59.1 -59.0 -59.3 -60.0 -61.4 -62.0 -60.4 -59.7 -58.8 -59.3 -61.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 48 50 52 53 58 55 51 47 46 47 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 14 15 12 8 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 87 80 65 41 27 39 54 2 -37 -60 -57 -58 200 MB DIV 29 24 33 5 8 -8 -3 -24 -99 5 18 21 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 11 14 8 1 0 0 4 0 -9 16 LAND (KM) 1900 1865 1801 1702 1612 1491 1356 1385 1455 1489 1367 1142 777 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.0 32.3 32.8 33.6 35.5 37.4 38.7 38.7 38.7 40.9 44.1 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.1 32.5 31.6 30.2 28.7 26.0 24.6 25.2 26.0 26.4 25.4 23.2 19.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 10 14 15 13 9 5 2 5 16 21 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. -0. -13. -22. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -14. -20. -23. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 19. 25. 26. 18. 5. -5. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.6 33.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 184.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 41 45 48 54 60 61 53 40 30 25 24 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 51 57 58 50 37 27 22 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 44 50 51 43 30 20 15 DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 40 41 33 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT