* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 46 49 55 60 59 52 38 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 46 49 55 60 59 52 38 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 41 44 51 57 57 54 48 39 32 28 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 14 13 12 12 24 63 80 70 46 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -5 -4 -2 -5 -6 -17 -20 -11 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 291 307 299 305 298 303 304 344 346 343 321 315 299 SST (C) 23.3 23.0 22.6 22.2 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.0 20.9 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 94 92 90 87 85 86 86 83 84 83 86 83 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 82 79 76 74 76 75 71 72 71 75 75 72 200 MB T (C) -59.2 -59.5 -59.5 -60.0 -60.0 -60.4 -60.5 -60.7 -59.7 -59.2 -58.6 -57.4 -58.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 56 60 61 59 55 49 49 50 45 43 49 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 12 8 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 72 56 46 22 13 20 -14 -53 -72 -58 -70 200 MB DIV 28 38 12 13 -3 -14 -18 -53 -48 -22 7 13 -5 700-850 TADV 0 5 9 10 8 0 -1 0 0 0 0 4 15 LAND (KM) 1775 1746 1744 1735 1712 1575 1429 1399 1402 1437 1463 1330 1180 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.4 34.4 35.2 35.6 35.3 35.1 35.5 35.3 35.1 35.8 37.8 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.2 30.4 29.8 29.2 28.7 27.2 25.5 24.8 25.0 25.6 25.4 24.4 23.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 7 5 7 5 1 2 1 7 13 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. -3. -16. -29. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 28. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 20. 25. 24. 17. 3. -11. -22. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.5 31.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.14 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 139.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 10.9% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/14/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 46 49 55 60 59 52 38 24 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 42 45 51 56 55 48 34 20 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 39 45 50 49 42 28 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 39 38 31 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT