* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 43 47 52 58 60 54 42 28 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 43 47 52 58 60 54 42 28 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 43 46 53 58 57 50 41 32 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 12 10 13 25 65 82 76 61 66 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 -3 -4 -18 -21 -13 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 298 297 287 279 288 303 355 359 352 334 334 329 335 SST (C) 22.5 21.9 21.4 21.3 21.5 22.2 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.5 23.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 90 87 83 80 82 87 89 90 91 92 94 96 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 77 73 70 72 76 78 79 80 81 83 86 94 200 MB T (C) -59.8 -60.2 -60.3 -60.5 -61.1 -60.8 -59.9 -58.9 -58.5 -57.6 -56.5 -55.3 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 -0.1 1.0 0.6 -0.1 0.5 2.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 62 61 56 51 46 43 45 41 40 45 50 48 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 9 5 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 47 64 54 41 37 15 -12 -69 -100 -54 -38 -31 200 MB DIV 16 23 12 -8 -2 -14 -79 -42 -33 -20 10 -28 -93 700-850 TADV 7 8 12 7 1 -2 0 -2 2 6 6 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1714 1709 1680 1628 1607 1532 1399 1274 1181 1074 901 703 460 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.7 36.6 36.9 36.7 35.4 33.9 32.5 31.2 30.2 29.5 28.3 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.9 25.3 25.0 24.3 22.7 21.1 19.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 7 3 5 8 8 7 6 7 8 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 0. -13. -26. -38. -47. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -17. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 23. 25. 19. 7. -7. -19. -31. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.6 29.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.7% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 43 47 52 58 60 54 42 28 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 39 43 48 54 56 50 38 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 40 46 48 42 30 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 36 38 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT