* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962017 11/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 50 48 40 28 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 50 48 40 28 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 49 52 48 40 33 28 22 16 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 4 6 13 24 59 71 70 51 82 71 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -16 -13 -13 5 -16 13 21 SHEAR DIR 272 277 274 265 317 347 353 351 326 324 338 339 320 SST (C) 21.5 21.3 21.2 21.3 21.6 22.3 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.3 23.7 23.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 84 82 80 81 83 87 89 89 91 94 98 95 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 72 70 71 73 76 78 78 81 85 89 89 85 200 MB T (C) -60.2 -60.5 -61.1 -61.2 -60.6 -60.0 -58.9 -58.9 -58.1 -56.7 -56.2 -56.2 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.8 0.8 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 56 52 48 46 45 46 40 42 48 47 39 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 11 8 6 5 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 58 62 56 37 -4 -71 -89 -54 -38 -12 18 200 MB DIV 3 -1 1 8 -43 -86 -32 -29 -18 -46 -71 -120 -37 700-850 TADV 3 7 -2 -1 1 0 2 1 6 4 -4 -11 -11 LAND (KM) 1694 1634 1595 1565 1550 1466 1335 1207 1040 796 522 241 -56 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.0 37.2 37.0 36.6 35.2 33.8 32.7 31.9 30.4 28.0 25.0 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.3 22.8 20.9 19.2 17.7 16.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 3 4 6 8 7 6 9 13 15 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 813 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 5. -5. -19. -30. -43. -55. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 10. 11. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 18. 10. -2. -13. -24. -39. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.4 28.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962017 INVEST 11/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.12 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.3% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962017 INVEST 11/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 50 48 40 28 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 45 43 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 38 36 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 27 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT