* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062016 07/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 49 59 69 79 82 84 85 86 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 49 59 69 79 82 84 85 86 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 45 52 59 63 66 67 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 8 9 8 7 4 10 3 1 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -6 -4 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 42 49 55 48 44 19 11 23 337 234 166 105 242 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.2 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 153 154 153 148 140 136 134 125 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 81 80 78 76 75 74 74 70 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 16 17 18 21 22 24 26 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -20 -14 -20 -15 -2 0 4 0 18 20 49 55 200 MB DIV 88 85 87 80 65 76 83 81 62 83 46 66 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -1 -5 0 0 6 4 LAND (KM) 566 570 572 606 652 763 835 862 908 973 1068 1192 1342 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 58 36 21 18 21 27 14 6 6 7 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 29. 39. 49. 52. 55. 55. 56. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 106.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 SIX 07/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.41 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.63 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 12.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 29.0% 20.8% 13.7% 0.0% 16.3% 16.8% Logistic: 5.5% 16.7% 18.4% 5.7% 3.1% 20.5% 28.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 13.8% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 3.1% 11.7% Consensus: 5.4% 19.8% 14.7% 6.9% 1.1% 13.3% 18.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 SIX 07/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##