* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062016 07/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 64 69 75 76 75 74 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 64 69 75 76 75 74 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 42 47 52 56 59 60 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 8 9 9 7 6 9 4 5 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -5 -4 -3 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 39 53 59 47 35 9 19 360 359 358 282 279 267 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 154 153 151 145 138 135 130 123 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 78 76 75 73 74 70 68 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 20 20 21 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -18 -10 -5 0 4 5 12 15 20 38 43 200 MB DIV 90 92 73 67 71 89 74 74 45 31 14 24 14 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 7 LAND (KM) 551 579 609 660 718 813 854 895 943 1010 1113 1235 1344 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.3 111.9 113.6 115.2 116.7 118.4 120.2 122.0 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 21 18 21 27 23 9 6 7 5 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 34. 39. 45. 46. 45. 44. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 SIX 07/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.61 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 14.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 26.0% 18.6% 12.5% 0.0% 15.2% 15.4% Logistic: 3.9% 11.4% 13.3% 3.3% 1.7% 14.2% 13.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.7% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.8% 9.2% Consensus: 4.0% 15.7% 11.9% 5.6% 0.6% 10.4% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 SIX 07/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##