* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062016 07/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 56 64 76 80 85 85 86 81 75 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 56 64 76 80 85 85 86 81 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 59 66 71 73 72 70 65 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 8 8 8 5 7 4 7 3 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -2 0 1 2 -2 1 -3 5 0 4 SHEAR DIR 46 49 46 40 30 8 357 346 357 342 28 296 254 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 153 149 140 136 131 126 121 117 114 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 78 76 74 72 70 70 68 69 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 20 20 24 25 28 30 32 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -12 -8 -5 -6 -9 2 0 19 17 42 53 79 200 MB DIV 86 73 80 71 83 90 91 49 74 43 51 24 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -7 -3 -5 0 -3 3 8 14 LAND (KM) 574 600 637 699 761 783 834 913 982 1069 1183 1305 1407 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.7 109.5 110.4 111.2 112.9 114.5 116.2 117.8 119.5 121.2 122.9 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 22 28 29 17 7 6 6 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 26.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 12. 17. 18. 21. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 29. 41. 45. 50. 50. 51. 46. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.0 107.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 SIX 07/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.61 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 37.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 34.8% 23.3% 15.5% 14.4% 18.9% 19.7% Logistic: 9.2% 31.6% 27.1% 13.0% 8.2% 28.6% 30.4% Bayesian: 1.2% 27.1% 15.5% 4.5% 1.7% 7.6% 6.2% Consensus: 7.6% 31.2% 21.9% 11.0% 8.1% 18.4% 18.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 SIX 07/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##