* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 56 66 72 77 79 84 81 78 70 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 56 66 72 77 79 84 81 78 70 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 56 61 64 65 64 63 60 56 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 10 12 5 16 9 3 4 2 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 3 3 7 1 -2 -1 3 1 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 45 37 26 33 4 321 331 342 336 346 99 340 68 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.4 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 153 154 148 139 134 131 125 119 114 107 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 80 80 77 77 75 74 72 73 71 70 65 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 21 25 27 29 29 34 32 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 -8 -8 -13 -4 0 8 13 21 39 51 74 200 MB DIV 75 76 61 78 96 106 42 71 53 42 25 9 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -8 -5 -7 -4 0 6 6 9 2 LAND (KM) 576 611 653 707 750 775 810 874 951 1045 1178 1322 1450 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.5 113.2 114.7 116.1 117.6 119.4 121.4 123.6 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 27 31 30 15 7 6 7 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 17. 22. 19. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 32. 37. 39. 44. 41. 38. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 108.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.70 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.42 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.60 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 57.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.21 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 27.4% 20.8% 15.3% 0.0% 18.6% 16.5% Logistic: 3.9% 8.8% 9.4% 2.5% 1.2% 11.5% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 34.4% 15.7% 3.6% 1.3% 1.8% 3.3% Consensus: 5.1% 23.6% 15.3% 7.1% 0.8% 10.6% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##