* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 53 58 65 68 76 77 77 78 74 68 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 53 58 65 68 76 77 77 78 74 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 62 63 62 60 58 56 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 11 8 17 15 5 1 3 3 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 6 7 1 -5 1 0 4 1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 29 14 4 346 313 325 329 333 134 168 112 65 22 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 153 148 139 134 129 123 119 115 105 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 76 75 75 73 75 75 74 71 68 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 27 29 29 33 32 32 33 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -5 -7 -6 -8 -6 -6 10 8 27 34 56 61 200 MB DIV 66 67 95 105 114 62 45 94 19 30 -9 8 -21 700-850 TADV 0 1 -3 -8 -7 -4 -3 0 2 11 5 9 3 LAND (KM) 568 610 659 713 752 765 810 889 964 1067 1202 1342 1476 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.3 18.3 18.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.6 113.2 114.7 116.3 118.1 119.9 121.6 123.9 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 26 30 30 16 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 10. 16. 15. 15. 16. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 23. 31. 32. 32. 33. 29. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.6 108.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 85.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.5% 4.6% 0.9% 0.4% 2.9% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 18.5% 7.0% 1.9% 0.2% 1.1% 7.6% Consensus: 0.5% 7.7% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 1.3% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##