* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 57 63 72 77 80 79 79 73 68 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 57 63 72 77 80 79 79 73 68 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 53 55 59 61 61 60 59 56 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 7 10 13 9 6 4 6 3 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 8 6 3 1 1 -1 3 0 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 29 5 346 343 337 326 3 66 99 137 53 93 56 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.0 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.7 25.4 24.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 152 143 135 132 127 120 117 112 102 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 74 73 74 76 74 72 68 64 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 27 28 28 31 34 34 34 35 35 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -4 -11 0 -5 9 12 26 43 57 75 67 200 MB DIV 89 106 120 128 97 24 84 75 22 19 13 -7 -23 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -7 -8 -6 -1 1 0 7 7 3 5 0 LAND (KM) 615 659 707 739 736 766 831 908 994 1122 1316 1434 1562 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.5 19.1 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.2 113.8 115.4 117.0 118.8 120.8 123.1 125.4 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 28 30 31 29 13 4 5 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 27. 32. 35. 34. 34. 28. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 109.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.65 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.37 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.81 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.05 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 28.5% 22.8% 16.8% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 12.5% 9.4% 4.0% 2.0% 4.7% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 13.7% 6.5% 1.4% 0.3% 1.5% 4.3% Consensus: 4.2% 18.3% 12.9% 7.4% 0.8% 8.2% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##