* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 57 65 72 76 81 80 76 71 64 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 57 65 72 76 81 80 76 71 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 49 51 55 57 58 60 58 52 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 9 13 14 3 2 6 5 6 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 3 -4 2 3 3 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 12 351 348 342 330 316 350 17 155 144 173 77 122 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.4 24.9 24.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 150 139 133 129 123 118 113 105 99 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 74 73 76 75 76 74 70 65 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 29 32 34 34 37 38 36 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -4 1 2 -3 9 16 40 40 66 69 69 200 MB DIV 123 124 113 96 65 55 68 46 43 19 38 -26 4 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 0 3 10 8 10 1 3 LAND (KM) 650 698 736 723 717 764 828 925 1036 1200 1354 1501 1661 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.8 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.1 112.8 114.4 116.0 117.9 119.7 121.9 124.3 126.9 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 31 30 26 9 3 5 1 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 17. 17. 14. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 27. 31. 36. 35. 31. 26. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 110.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.65 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.79 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.13 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 31.2% 23.6% 16.3% 15.7% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.2% 6.1% 2.6% 1.4% 3.2% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 10.9% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% Consensus: 4.4% 16.1% 11.2% 6.7% 5.8% 7.6% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##