* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 61 68 71 74 76 73 69 63 58 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 61 68 71 74 76 73 69 63 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 56 58 59 58 56 54 50 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 10 15 13 6 3 3 5 4 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 0 -2 1 5 3 5 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 8 8 5 330 325 309 326 12 160 76 119 96 274 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.6 25.2 24.6 24.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 150 145 135 132 127 120 116 110 104 97 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 75 76 75 76 76 71 66 63 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 27 27 30 31 32 33 32 31 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 0 -1 -2 3 7 28 40 43 71 61 48 200 MB DIV 115 91 65 64 60 53 67 51 32 0 4 -7 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 8 14 7 7 3 12 LAND (KM) 705 747 744 740 746 799 908 1010 1147 1323 1480 1641 1788 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.7 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.4 112.1 112.8 113.6 115.3 117.0 118.9 121.1 123.5 126.0 128.5 130.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 24 16 4 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 9. 11. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 18. 21. 24. 26. 23. 19. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.1 110.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.58 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.62 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 29.2% 22.0% 15.5% 13.8% 17.2% 14.9% Logistic: 2.2% 6.9% 3.6% 2.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 11.1% 5.0% 1.1% 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% Consensus: 5.0% 15.7% 10.2% 6.2% 5.0% 6.6% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##