* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 67 71 77 77 79 78 75 69 64 57 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 67 71 77 77 79 78 75 69 64 57 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 69 70 67 65 61 55 49 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 14 13 6 4 4 2 2 1 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 7 1 -1 1 1 5 2 3 2 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 13 2 311 319 311 318 341 150 278 132 72 88 270 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.3 24.6 24.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 148 144 140 135 131 125 120 117 110 105 95 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 75 75 77 78 75 69 65 60 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 28 29 32 31 33 33 33 30 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR -4 0 1 -3 1 9 19 43 38 61 67 60 45 200 MB DIV 80 57 63 53 49 74 31 40 17 15 -13 5 8 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -3 -3 0 2 14 8 8 7 6 5 LAND (KM) 758 756 762 768 782 874 985 1105 1244 1409 1581 1738 1896 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.2 112.9 113.7 114.4 116.1 118.0 120.0 122.1 124.5 127.1 129.7 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 21 15 9 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 9. 8. 11. 12. 11. 7. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 22. 22. 25. 23. 20. 14. 9. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 111.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.50 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 139.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 36.1% 24.7% 17.1% 15.6% 18.8% 15.0% Logistic: 12.8% 24.6% 12.6% 9.8% 5.8% 6.9% 4.7% Bayesian: 9.5% 29.4% 17.2% 7.5% 3.7% 7.5% 0.4% Consensus: 13.2% 30.0% 18.2% 11.5% 8.4% 11.1% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 12 UTC ##